IPB University Political Economy Expert: Post-Eid 2025, People’s Purchasing Power and the Shadow of Layoffs are Threats

The euphoria of Eid al-Fitr 1446 H is starting to subside. Attention is now turning to the challenges of the national economy post-Lebaran. One of the crucial issues in the spotlight is the decline in labor absorption and the weakening of people’s purchasing power.

Muhammad Findi, a lecturer at IPB University from the Economics and Development Study Program, said there are indications of an economic slowdown reflected in the Lebaran 2025 homecoming flow which is relatively quieter than in previous years.

“This implies that there is a potential reduction in the financial ability of the community to travel back and forth,” explained the political economy expert at IPB University.

A survey by the Ministry of Transportation (Kemenhub) showed that the estimated number of travelers for Lebaran 2025 reached 146,48 million people. This number has decreased significantly by 24 percent compared to 193,6 million travelers in 2024.

Furthermore, Findi sees this decline as a strong signal for the government to immediately take strategic steps in reviving the national economy, especially through the creation of new jobs in the creative economy sector which is considered attractive to millennials and gen Z.

At the same time, the threat of a wave of mass layoffs has the potential to occur throughout 2025, due to global economic uncertainty.

Referring to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 2024, the open unemployment rate is in the range of 4,81 percent in the first semester and 4,91 percent in the second semester.

“This upward trend could continue if the government does not provide adequate stimulus for entrepreneurs,” he said.

He recommended the government to prioritize protection for young people who are just entering the workforce. Suggested measures include digital-based business facilitation, comprehensive support for creative economy workers, as well as improved access to working capital and professionalism training.

The results of the analysis of the impact of the decline in homecoming interest on money turnover during the Idul Fitri period, showed a decline from Rp157,3 trillion in 2024 to Rp137,975 trillion in 2025.

This decline, he said, is a strong indicator of weakening people’s purchasing power, which has the potential to affect industrial demand in the upstream sector and lead to layoffs.

Facing this situation, Findi advises the public to make efficient expenditures and divert them to productive sectors.

He also urged the government to ensure the availability of basic needs, optimize health services, continue social programs such as Free Nutritious Meals and school fee exemptions, and strengthen the social safety net.

“Domestic security and political stability are also crucial in restoring the spirit of national economic revival,” he said. (US) (IAAS/ASY)