Professor of IPB Develops Models to Predict Extreme Weather

The rapidly changing global climate causes unpredictable shifting of rainfall, particularly in the tropics. Rapid and accurate forecast is extremely important to anticipate the adverse effect of extreme rainfall. Prof. Dr. Ir. Aji Hamim Wigena, MSc, professor of the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), developed Statistical Downscaling (SD) model to provide rapid and accurate rainfall forecast. Starting his research in 2004, Prof. Wigena utilizes the output data of General Circulation Model (GCM) as the main important domain in SD modeling.

"This SD model is a transfer function which describes the relation between global atmospheric circulation and the elements of local climate," as explained by Prof. Wigena in his Professorial Inaugural Oration at Andi Hakim Nasoetion Auditorium, Dramaga IPB Campus, Bogor (24/2).

GCM is a model involving numerical, deterministic and complex computer simulations of climatic conditions along with their various components that always change over time. GCM describes the mathematical relationships of a number of physical, chemical and dynamical interactions of the Earth's atmosphere.

"The GCM model is considered to be an important model in the terms of understanding climate condition in the past, present and future. Not only functioning as the main tool in predicting climate and weather, the SD model can also be used to reconstruct historical data" the professor explained.

The SD modeling research project is in tight collaboration with Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG). The national agency is expecting to implement the model for extreme rainfall prediction in Indonesia. Broader utilization of the SD modeling include disaster mitigation policy and cropping calendar determination.