Commodity Volatility Prices, a Business Cycle Which is Always Repeated

Indonesia is very much dependence on imports. "As many as 15 percent of our staple foods are imported. The world is always experiencing specific periodic economic crises which cause the volatility of price of specific commodity. This is a business cycle which is always repeated. Therefore we need to anticipate it, "said Lecturer of the Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), Prof.Noer Azam  Achsani, Thursday, 9 August 2012, at the IPB International Convention Center. The theme was “Volatilitas harga komoditas tertinggi terjadi pada tahun 2004 dan 2008 (The Highest Commodity Volatility Pices was on 2004 and 2008).

The volatility of soybean prices has greatly impacted on Indonesia’s macroeconomic conditions, because of its lower GDP growth. There are three keys to overcome those food crisis. One of those keys according to Prof. Azam is the exemplification of the  Prophet Yusuf when he managed  the food crisis in Egypt. Prof. Azam citing some verses  in the Qur’an which telling the story of Prophet Yusuf. The Prophet Yusuf said, "That you must cultivate in the seven consecutive years seriously, then what you reap you shall leave in the stem but little for you to eat."
 
From the words of the Prophet Yusuf, continued Prof.Azam, first, we should cultivate earnestly (for the long-term perspective we should to think about the seeds availability, fertilizers, agricultural technology, the environmental challenges, and so on). Second, “let the grains stay on the stems”,  means we need to implement post-harvest storage and food preservation (medium-term perspective). The third key, we should  control of our consumption program by eating enough food or set the pattern (short-term perspective). "This is where I acknowledge that the Prophet Yusuf was The Best Economist in the world Ever. If we believe the words of God,  we have to obey and use them as our primary reference, "said Prof. Azam.

Three lessons we learned  from the Prophet Yusuf that we should meet our needed foods  sufficiently, not our wanted foods, as there is no religion that teach us to develop our economic utilizing debt and no lesson teach us to cope the scarcity of foods by importation, but with stock management. "We also see the good example of the Prophet Yusuf as a good leader who practiced  good governance, he was knowledgeable but was not a native man. The origin of Prophet Yusuf was not from Egypt, "said Prof. Azam.

The seminar invited well-speakers that include: Prof.Rina Oktaviani (Professor of Economics IPB), Prof. Munif Ghulamahdi  (Soybean Expert of  IPB), Ir.Okta Muchtar, MA. Econ (Chief Sub Directorate (Kasubdit) Analysis & Export Development, Ministry of Agriculture ), Astera Primanto Bhakti, M.Tax (Representative of Ministry of Finance), and Dr. Arya Hadi Dharmawan (Expert  of Rural Communities sociology of IPB). (Wied).