Population Plummets, IPB University Expert Highlights Threats to Japan’s Economy and Future
Japan’s ongoing population decline is no longer merely a demographic issue. This phenomenon is beginning to affect the labor force, economic growth, the welfare system, and the country’s global competitiveness.
IPB University’s Ecological Genetics expert, Prof Ronny Rachman Noor, explains that Japan is currently facing a combination of serious challenges such as low birth rates, a steadily aging population, and social and economic changes that are causing the younger generation to delay marriage and having children.
“Many young people are delaying marriage due to economic factors and shifting social values. The high cost of living in cities like Tokyo and a strict work culture with long working hours make it difficult for them to maintain a balance between career and family,” explained Prof Ronny.
Japan’s total fertility rate (TFR) now stands at around 1,3 children per woman, far below the population replacement rate of 2,1. Meanwhile, nearly 30 percent of Japan’s population is over 65 years old.
This situation has long been a concern for the Japanese government. Various policies have been implemented, ranging from flexible work hours, free childcare, education subsidies, to increasing women’s participation in the workforce. The government is also promoting rural revitalization and opening opportunities for foreign workers in several sectors.
However, Prof Ronny believes these efforts have not yet been able to reverse the population decline trend.
“Cultural factors hinder the success of government programs because social norms force women to choose between career and family. Economic stability has not been achieved because many young people struggle to cover living expenses and care for children,” he said.
The impact of population decline is already being felt in the short term through a shrinking workforce and rising fiscal burdens due to the growing number of elderly people. In the long term, this situation has the potential to slow economic growth, reduce the number of taxpayers, and stifle innovation and investment.
“This decline in population could threaten the sustainability of the pension system and healthcare services. From a geopolitical perspective, Japan may rely on international alliances and automation to remain competitive,” said Prof Ronny.
He noted that Japan faces a difficult choice. Immigration could be a quick solution to boost the workforce, but it still faces cultural and political resistance. On the other hand, internal reforms such as improving work culture and supporting families align better with local values, though the results will take a long time to materialize.
According to Prof Ronny, the most realistic scenario is to combine both approaches through gradual immigration liberalization, improvements in work culture, and enhanced family welfare.
“So, Japanese culture isn’t fully ready to accept large-scale immigration yet. Demographic and economic pressures may push Japan to become more pragmatic, albeit with strict limits. Change may occur, though slowly,” he said.
Looking ahead, Japan is expected to increasingly rely on robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), and automation to maintain economic productivity. However, Prof Ronny emphasized that technology alone is not enough.
“Japan’s population decline is a major challenge that requires serious attention. Internal reforms for sustainability and measured immigration policies for the workforce are the necessary combination,” he concluded. (*/Rz) (IAAS/ASY)
